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Current Gold Prices – The big secret behind gold’s $100 collapse

by Adam Hewison

The question many investors are asking themselves today is, just what happened to the price of gold?

Did the world change? Did the problems in Europe go away? Did all the states manage to find funding to cover their deficits?

No, none of that happened, but gold still dropped $100.

It’s all about market perception and timing, two things we’ve talked about many times before on the Trader’s Blog. I don’t know about you, but I remember when gold was over $1,400 an ounce and all I could see on TV where ads from gold companies extolling the virtues of buying gold as it is real money. Since the fall, I expect we’ll see fewer of these advertisements on TV and in print.

So what did happen to gold?

Well, for starters there were some key technical levels broken. If you’re a gold trader, but not a technical trader, you really need to learn how to read charts and see what other traders are doing.

Secondly, there did not appear to be any other news to drive this market higher. When that happens, markets tend to fall under their own weight, and as many retail investors purchased gold, there was nobody on the other side of the market to support gold.

So the question is, is the move over in gold? That’s a tricky one. I want to show you in today’s video exactly how we’re looking at this very emotional market. Every time we have created a video indicating that there would be some pullback in gold, we were bombarded by the gold bugs saying that we’re crazy. When you see a market pullback as much as gold has, you have to have some respect for the market itself.

If we look at the price of gold today at approximately $1,330, it pretty much equates to what happened in the last 30 years when gold was trading at a high of $850 an ounce. If you factor in inflation over the last 30 years, gold is probably lower now than it was 30 years ago. So how good an investment is gold? I think gold is more of a barometer of fear than anything else. Clearly there are other investments in the marketplace that have better returns.

Let’s get back to gold and what we think will happen. In this short video we analyze the market using our “Trade Triangles,” the Williams%R, and the MACD indicator.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you like what you see please comment on our blog and feel free to Tweet or e-mail your friends. I think there’s an important takeaway message in this video – what goes up, must come down.

Enjoy the video.

Key Events: Friday, March 5, 2010

Friday, March 5, 2010
8:30 AM ET. Feb Employment Report

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -75K; previous -20K)
  • Unemployment Rate (expected 9.8%; previous 9.7%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (previous 18.89)
  • Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (previous +0.05)
  • Manufacturing Payrolls (previous +11K)
  • Overall Workweek (previous 33.3)
  • Overall Workweek Net Change (previous +0.1)
  • Service Producing Payrolls (previous +40K)

3:00 PM ET. Jan Consumer Credit, in dollars (expected -4.5B; previous -1.7B)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub.

Key Events: Thursday, March 4, 2010

Thursday, March 4, 2010

8:30 AM ET. 4 Quarter Productivity & Costs, revised

  • Non-Farm Productivity (expected +6.4%; previous +6.2%)
  • Unit Labor Costs (expected -4.6%; previous -4.4%)

8:30 AM ET. Feb 27 Jobless Claims

  • Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 475K; previous 496K)
  • Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +22K)
  • Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 4617000)
  • Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (expected -21K; previous +6K)

10:00 AM ET. Jan Factory Orders

  • Total Orders (expected +2%; previous +1%)
  • Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +1%)
  • Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +1.2%)
  • Durable Goods Revised (previous +1)

10:00 AM ET. Jan Pending Home Sales Current (previous 96.6)

  • MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (expected +1%; previous +1%)
  • YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous +10.9%)

10:00 AM ET. Feb 20 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer

  • DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.1%)
  • DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous -1.3%)

10:30 AM ET. Feb 26 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

  • Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1853)
  • Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –172)

4:30 PM ET. Mar 3 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars

  • Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 2.96T)
  • US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 766.81B)
  • Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.2T)

4:30 PM ET. Mar 3 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars

  • Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 13.75B)
  • Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 13.96B)
  • Discount Window Borrowings (previous 86.03B)
  • Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 87.21B)

4:30 PM ET. Feb 22 Money Supply

  • N/A Feb Chain-Store Sales

Friday, March 5, 2010
8:30 AM ET. Feb Employment Report

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -75K; previous -20K)
  • Unemployment Rate (expected 9.8%; previous 9.7%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (previous 18.89)
  • Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (previous +0.05)
  • Manufacturing Payrolls (previous +11K)
  • Overall Workweek (previous 33.3)
  • Overall Workweek Net Change (previous +0.1)
  • Service Producing Payrolls (previous +40K)

3:00 PM ET. Jan Consumer Credit, in dollars (expected -4.5B; previous -1.7B)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub.

Key Events: Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

7:45 AM ET. Feb 27 ICSC/Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales

  • Chain Store Sales Index – WoW (previous +2.3%)
  • Chain Store Sales Index – YoY (previous +0.9%)

8:55 AM ET. Feb 27 Redbook Index

  • MoM % Change (previous +1.6%)
  • 12MonChgPct (previous +1.9%)
  • 52WkChgPct (previous +1.9%)

4:30 PM ET. Feb 26 API Oil Industry Report

  • Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -3.14M)
  • Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.74M)
  • Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -834K)
  • Refinery Runs (previous 80.8%)

5:00 PM ET. Feb 28 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index

  • ABC News Consumer Confidence Index (previous –50)
  • N/A  Feb Auto Sales

Wednesday, March 3, 2010
7:00 AM ET. Feb 26 Mortgage Applications

  • Market Composite Index (previous 549.5)
  • Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -8.5)
  • Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 196.8)
  • Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -7.3%)
  • Refinance Index (previous 2605.3)
  • Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous -8.9%

8:15 AM ET. Feb ADP National Employment Report

  • Private Payrolls Forecast (Expected –35000; previous –22000)

10:00 AM ET. Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Index

  • Non-Manufacturing PMI (expected 50.5; previous 50.5)
  • Non-Manufacturing Business Index (previous 52.2)
  • Prices Index (previous 61.2)
  • Employment Index (previous 44.6)
  • New Orders Index (previous 54.7)

10:30 AM ET. Feb 26 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

  • Crude Oil Stocks (previous 337.54M)
  • Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.03M)
  • Gasoline Stocks (previous 231.17M)
  • Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -895K)
  • Distillate Stocks (previous 152.66M)
  • Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -591K)
  • Refinery Usage (previous 81.17%)

2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve Beige Book

Thursday, March 4, 2010
8:30 AM ET. 4 Quarter Productivity & Costs, revised

  • Non-Farm Productivity (expected +6.4%; previous +6.2%)
  • Unit Labor Costs (expected -4.6%; previous -4.4%)

8:30 AM ET. Feb 27 Jobless Claims

  • Weekly Jobless Claims (expected 475K; previous 496K)
  • Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +22K)
  • Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 4617000)
  • Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (expected -21K; previous +6K)

10:00 AM ET. Jan Factory Orders

  • Total Orders (expected +2%; previous +1%)
  • Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +1%)
  • Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +1.2%)
  • Durable Goods Revised (previous +1)

10:00 AM ET. Jan Pending Home Sales Current (previous 96.6)

  • MoM Pct Change (Current Period) (expected +1%; previous +1%)
  • YoY Pct Change (Current Period) (previous +10.9%)

10:00 AM ET. Feb 20 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer

  • DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous -0.1%)
  • DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous -1.3%)

10:30 AM ET. Feb 26 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

  • Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 1853)
  • Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –172)

4:30 PM ET. Mar 3 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars

  • Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 2.96T)
  • US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 766.81B)
  • Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.2T)

4:30 PM ET. Mar 3 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars

  • Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 13.75B)
  • Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 13.96B)
  • Discount Window Borrowings (previous 86.03B)
  • Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 87.21B)

4:30 PM ET. Feb 22 Money Supply

  • N/A Feb Chain-Store Sales

Friday, March 5, 2010
8:30 AM ET. Feb Employment Report

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (expected -75K; previous -20K)
  • Unemployment Rate (expected 9.8%; previous 9.7%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings (previous 18.89)
  • Average Hourly Earnings Net Change (previous +0.05)
  • Manufacturing Payrolls (previous +11K)
  • Overall Workweek (previous 33.3)
  • Overall Workweek Net Change (previous +0.1)
  • Service Producing Payrolls (previous +40K)

3:00 PM ET. Jan Consumer Credit, in dollars (expected -4.5B; previous -1.7B)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub

Key Events: Monday, March 1, 2010

Monday March 1, 2010

8:30 AM ET. Jan PERSONAL INCOME (previous 0.4%)

  • Spending (previous 0.2%)

10:00 AM ET. Jan CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (previous -1.2%)

10:00 AM ET. Feb ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEY

11:00 AM ET. Treasury 4-WK BILL ANNOUNCEMENT

  • Offering Amount (previous $31.0B)

1:00 PM ET.  TRSY 13-& 26-WK BILL AUCTION

  • Discount Rate (13-wk) (previous 0.100%)
  • Discount Rate (26-wk) (previous 0.190%)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub.

Key Events to Watch For: Thursday, February 25, 2010

Thursday, February 25, 2010

8:30 AM ET. Feb 20 Jobless Claims

  • Weekly Jobless Claims (previous 473K)
  • Weekly Jobless Claims Net Change (previous +31K)
  • Cont Jobless Claims (prior week) (previous 4563000)
  • Cont Jobless Claims Net Chg (prior week) (previous 0)

8:30 AM ET. Jan Durable Goods

  • Total Orders (previous +1%)
  • Orders, Ex-Defense (previous +0.3%)
  • Orders, Ex-Transportation (previous +0.9%)

10:00 AM ET. Feb 13 DJ-BTMU Economic Barometer

  • DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (previous 0%)
  • DJ-BTMU Business Barometer (52 Wk) (previous -1.4%)

10:30 AM ET. Feb 19 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

  • Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2025)
  • Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –190)

11:00 AM ET. Feb Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

  • Manufacturing Activity Index (previous 13)
  • Manufacturing Activity Index (6 Mon) (previous 35)

4:30 PM ET. Feb 15 Money Supply

4:30 PM ET. Feb 24 Fed Discount Window Borrowings, in dollars

  • Primary Credit Borrowings (previous 14.16B)
  • Primary Credit Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 14.26B)
  • Discount Window Borrowings (previous 87.77B)
  • Discount Window Borrowings W/E Daily Avg. (previous 87.73B)

4:30 PM ET. Feb 24 Foreign Central Bank Holdings, in dollars

  • Foreign US Debt Holdings (previous 2.96T)
  • US Foreign Agency Holdings (previous 766.3B)
  • Foreign Treasury Holdings (previous 2.19T)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub.

Key Events to Watch for: Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

7:00 AM ET. Feb 19 Mortgage Applications

  • Market Composite Index (previous 600.5)
  • Market Composite Index Cur Chg (previous -2.1%)
  • Purchase Index (S.A.) (previous 212.3)
  • Purchase Index (S.A.) Cur Chg (previous -4%)
  • Refinance Index (previous 2860.1)
  • Refinance Index Cur Chg (previous -1.2%)

10:00 AM ET. Jan New Home Sales

  • Overall Sales (previous 342K)
  • Percent Change (previous -7.6%)
  • Months’ Supply (previous 8.1)

10:30 AM ET. Feb 19 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

  • Crude Oil Stocks (previous 334.5M)
  • Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.09M)
  • Gasoline Stocks (previous 232.07M)
  • Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.62M)
  • Distillate Stocks (previous 153.26M)
  • Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.94M)
  • Refinery Usage (previous 79.75%)

Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via MarketClub.

Free video: Is Gold Heading Higher or Lower?

This short video shows two important elements that are in play right now and how they could determine the next big trend in gold.

The video is free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

Watch the video here: Is Gold Poised to Go Higher or Lower?

Gold, Silver, Platinum…W.T.F.?

I’m sure many of you read that title and your mind went in the gutter, but today I’m going to show you a whole new meaning for this acronym and how it applies to gold, silver, and platinum.

These three markets have a lot of volume, government implications, and technicals lining up for potentially great trades. Gold makes a record high, then pulls back. Silver is inching towards an all-time high level and platinum is making people rethink their decision to go with a white gold wedding band.

Where do you stand in these markets and maybe more importantly, where should you stand?

Click here to find out what W.T.F. really stands for and what does it have to do with gold, silver, and platinum?

You’ve got to watch the video to find out.