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gold

Precious Metals – Gold and Silver Price Targets

by Adam Hewison

The gold and silver markets rallied dramatically to the upside as concerns and worries over oil supplies, inflation, and general nervousness in the world markets pushed both metals into new high ground.

I have just completed a new short video where I share with you my upside target zones for gold. The video only takes a few minutes to watch and emphasizes how important technical analysis is in the gold market. Our weekly Trade Triangles have been long gold from $1,368 and it looks as though that position is going to work out well.

We also refer back to a video that I made on September 20th last year, which underscores the importance of cyclic work in the gold market and, how if these same cycles hold true, can predict with a fair degree of certainty when the next cyclic high is going to occur.

I reveal all of this in this new short video that I think you’ll find both informative and educational. Take a look at the short video here:

As always all our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you’d like to share this video with your friends, please feel free to do so.

Free video: Gold and silver price targets

Gold Prices Today – Why isn’t gold higher with the turmoil in Egypt?

by Adam Hewison

Despite all the turmoil in Egypt and the Arab world, gold has stubbornly refused to rally. This probably causes great concern amongst the gold bugs and the folks who are bullish on gold.

As we have mentioned before many times on this blog, “perception is more powerful than fundamentals.”

While the gold bugs argue that the market is being manipulated, I am more of a realist and respect what the market is actually doing. The big question on everyone’s mind is: Why are food prices and other commodity markets soaring, while gold is dismally staying down in the $1,330 area?

Why isn’t gold higher?

MarketClub’s Trade Triangles are all Red, meaning that the trend for gold is likely to remain negative or at best move in a sideways fashion.

My best estimation at this point in time is that we are going to see more sideways action and probably some recovery from current levels. However, I would like to see some concrete evidence that the market has actually put in a low and that we will see a recovery in this yellow metal in the future.

One thing I can say, historically our monthly RED Trade Triangles have not been successful in gold. You would have been more successful fading the RED monthly Trade Triangle signal and going long gold.

Before getting, “gung ho” on this approach, you will be better off waiting for a green weekly trade triangle to kick in which would indicate that the market has probably made a low.

That is the main reason why, we recommend using the weekly Trade Triangles for trend, and daily Trade Triangle’s for timing.

In this short video, I explained what I mean and show you concrete examples of how you can use this strategy to make money.

Current Gold Prices – The big secret behind gold’s $100 collapse

by Adam Hewison

The question many investors are asking themselves today is, just what happened to the price of gold?

Did the world change? Did the problems in Europe go away? Did all the states manage to find funding to cover their deficits?

No, none of that happened, but gold still dropped $100.

It’s all about market perception and timing, two things we’ve talked about many times before on the Trader’s Blog. I don’t know about you, but I remember when gold was over $1,400 an ounce and all I could see on TV where ads from gold companies extolling the virtues of buying gold as it is real money. Since the fall, I expect we’ll see fewer of these advertisements on TV and in print.

So what did happen to gold?

Well, for starters there were some key technical levels broken. If you’re a gold trader, but not a technical trader, you really need to learn how to read charts and see what other traders are doing.

Secondly, there did not appear to be any other news to drive this market higher. When that happens, markets tend to fall under their own weight, and as many retail investors purchased gold, there was nobody on the other side of the market to support gold.

So the question is, is the move over in gold? That’s a tricky one. I want to show you in today’s video exactly how we’re looking at this very emotional market. Every time we have created a video indicating that there would be some pullback in gold, we were bombarded by the gold bugs saying that we’re crazy. When you see a market pullback as much as gold has, you have to have some respect for the market itself.

If we look at the price of gold today at approximately $1,330, it pretty much equates to what happened in the last 30 years when gold was trading at a high of $850 an ounce. If you factor in inflation over the last 30 years, gold is probably lower now than it was 30 years ago. So how good an investment is gold? I think gold is more of a barometer of fear than anything else. Clearly there are other investments in the marketplace that have better returns.

Let’s get back to gold and what we think will happen. In this short video we analyze the market using our “Trade Triangles,” the Williams%R, and the MACD indicator.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you like what you see please comment on our blog and feel free to Tweet or e-mail your friends. I think there’s an important takeaway message in this video – what goes up, must come down.

Enjoy the video.

DJIA Priced in Gold: What It Means for the Long-Term Trend

Timeless Trading Lesson

Of the many forward-looking market indicators we at EWI employ, one of the most interesting tools (and least discussed in the financial media) is the DJIA priced in gold — “the real money,” as EWI’s president Robert Prechter calls it. What implications might the present position of Dow/gold have for the long-term trend of the nominal Dow? In this video, Elliott Wave International’s Steven Hochberg shows you several revealing charts that answer this question.

(Discover why deflation is the biggest threat to your money — download your FREE 90-page eBook now.)

Discover how Elliott wave analysis gives you a consistently logical explanation and debunk one of the major myths of what caused the Asian Financial Crisis in the free video, “The Real-Time Power of Elliott Wave Analysis: Debunking the Myths of the Asian Financial Crisis.” Access Your FREE Video Now.


Download your FREE deflation eBook now.

Newly updated for 2010, Prechter’s 90-page eBook reveals why deflation is the biggest threat to your money right now. You will learn how to prepare for
deflation, survive it, and maybe even prosper during it, so you’ll be ready for the next buying opportunity of a lifetime when deflation is over. Download
your FREE deflation eBook now
.

The #1 Reason Why Gold Collapsed

by Adam Hewison

Following the gold market as we do here at MarketClub, it was amazing that nobody, and I mean nobody, was bearish on this market. This always creates a problem as the markets tend to reverse when everyone is on one side and there’s no one else left to buy.

Another tip-off was on Fox Business News and also on CNBC indicating that gold was going to hit $1400 almost immediately. Well after Tuesday, we know what was to happen to the price of gold. If gold were so strong, should it really have gone down almost $70 in 4 days?

This is where technical analysis and Japanese candlestick charts really shine in my opinion. What happened in gold was a classic candlestick formation that any trader, whether they trade gold or other markets, should be aware of.

In this short video, I illustrate how this formation occurred and how it was confirmed the next day – and I don’t mean on Tuesday.

I also have a free candlestick book that I’m making available along with this video.

Target Price for Gold

by Adam Hewison

A little while ago I made a video that projected some amazing levels for gold. Given the strong upward trend in gold and the price action on Tuesday the 5th of October, it is worthwhile looking at this video again:

This short video, will certainly give you some interesting price targets for gold that are based on sound trading principles. I hope you enjoy the video, and as always we would love to have your feedback on our blog.

Gold All-Time High Coming?

Is gold ready to challenge its all-time high?
by Adam Hewison

The bull market inched higher during Sunday night trading, subsequently pushing gold to its best levels since December of last year. The sudden move down on Monday was a reminder that the 1160 area is an area of resistance for this precious metal.

Watch the video

In this new video on gold, I’ll show you some of the indicators that you may want to look at in this market.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements, but we invite you to please share your thoughts on gold on our Traders Blog:

Your Cheatin’ Chart Will Tell On You

How the Dow Has Really Performed When Measured in Real Money (Gold)

By Elliott Wave International

“Your cheating chart will tell on you.”

Hank Williams may not have known about Elliott waves, but he did know when a story doesn’t add up.

Such is the case with the nominal rise of the Dow Jones Industrials from 2000 to 2007. In the language of country music, this stock index has a “Cheatin’ Chart” — it doesn’t tell the real story.

Download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. This valuable ebook explores the role of gold in today’s markets like no other resource has attempted. You will get more than Prechter’s long-term outlook on gold and silver; you’ll also learn how gold still plays an important role in determining the real value behind nominal share prices. Learn more, and download your Gold and Silver eBook here.

You don’t have to tell Bob Prechter this: He knows. A simple price chart of the Dow is, well, a bit too simple. First Bob explains that pricing via fiat currency is not the same as pricing the Dow in terms of real money (namely gold). Then he shows the difference.

For six long years, we’ve had declining real values in stocks. Since the 2002 bottom, we’ve had rising values in nominal terms. This is the same set-up that we saw in the early ’70s except for one thing: it’s bigger. . .Ultimately, real prices are leading dollar prices, and we’re going to see a tremendous drop in the dollar price of the Dow as well, because I’m making a case that this is a much bigger top.
Elliott Wave Theorist, December 2006

nominal dow follows the lead of real dow

If gold were our money, the major stock market indexes would have declined relentlessly from 2000 to the present, with a muted bounce in 2003. There would be no arguing the point of whether a bull or bear market was in force.
Elliott Wave Theorist, March 2006

This “oh-so-true” chart of the DJIA priced in gold showed the path that the “cheatin'” nominal Dow would eventually follow. Our forecast was that it’s just a matter of time. This analysis has played out as expected several times since the 1999 high in the Dow Jones Industrials.

The July 1999 top in the real Dow was the first in a long succession of rolling blow-offs that (The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast) successfully identified From the DJIA’s orthodox top in 2000 to the NASDAQ’s all-time high several weeks later to the top in residential real estate prices in 2005 to the nominal peaks in major stock indexes in 2007 to the wild commodity spikes in 2008, EWFF managed to anticipate many of the markets major trend changes. . .We owe these forecasting successes to the Wave Principle and its reflection of market psychology and its foreshadowing of larger social forces.
Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 2009

The monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast keeps a tireless eye on stocks, real estate, commodities and much more. We also keep track of the precious metals and the dollar — and even keep our finger on the pulse of developing social trends.

The quotes above confirm the power of Elliott wave analysis in identifying market turns in various asset classes.

Download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. This valuable ebook explores the role of gold in today’s markets like no other resource has attempted. You will get more than Prechter’s long-term outlook on gold and silver; you’ll also learn how gold still plays an important role in determining the real value behind nominal share prices. Learn more, and download your Gold and Silver eBook here.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Why gold will not make new highs or lows this year

by Adam Hewison

Gold has had some dramatic moves in the last eighteen months and we expect it will have some equally dramatic moves in the future, but not right now.

Watch the free video here: Gold going higher?

While I recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate about; the purpose of this article is not to take sides either with the gold bugs or those who reject the argument that gold is forever. Rather, I want to discuss my interpretation of the markets cycle.

After spot gold made an all-time high against the dollar on December 2 at $1,226.37, gold has been in retreat mode. For the for the past several months gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration from bulls and bears alike.

Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here’s why:

Gold first started trading in the 80s while I was on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago as a member of the International Monetary Market, (IMM) which was at that time a division of the CME now the CME Group. When gold opened up the public clamored to buy into the gold futures market and guess who sold it to them? Thats right it was the pros- the guys who made their living trading. As a result, gold hit an all-time high of around $850 an ounce back then and it took almost 25 years for gold to move over that level, at least in dollar terms. I dont know what your timeline is, but 25 to 30 years is an awful long time to get even again.

So what is really happening in this market?

Everyone is aware of the problems in Europe with Greece, Portugal and a host of yet to be named countries. We all know that the huge amount of money being printed, coupled with the bank failures abroad contribute to the dollars declining value. These events, in conjunction with the American governments actions, also contribute to the devaluation of the dollar. The government claims that this is beneficial to exports, but the bottom line is that the purchasing power of the American dollar continues to erode in world markets.

Based on the declining value of world currency against gold you might ask- why isnt gold trading at $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce? What is wrong with this market? This is because a great deal of what goes into the gold market is psychological and reacts to cyclic trends driven by both psychological and economic factors.

So what does all this have to do with the price of gold now? It has everything to do with gold and nothing to do with gold.

Here is what I’ve been able to observe in the last several years in gold and seems to be holding true. It is something that you should pay attention to if you’re interested in the next big move in the gold market.

Before gold can move higher it needs to create what I call an “energy field”. The most recent energy fields in gold were between May 12, 2006 and September 20, 2007. This 17 month energy field saw gold prices oscillate between a broad trading range bound by $730.08 (upside) and $541.80 (downside). That energy field produced enough power to propel gold to the new high of $1,012.40 on March 17, 2008. This marked the first time gold exceeded, in dollar terms, the highs set in the early 80s mentioned earlier.

The energy fields I have observed for gold are taking somewhere between 17 and 18 months to complete. If the energy field holds, then the December 3rd 2009 high of $1,226.37 should remain in place for quite some time. If the same cycle remains true then the recent lows that we witnessed, at $1,050, should also remain intact as they represent the 15 to 16 month cycle low.

With the lows in place the next question becomes when is the next cyclical high in gold? Based on the existing cycle, we can expect the next major gold high in 2011.

To summarize: I expect gold to be locked in a broad trading range for the next 12 months bounded by the December 09 highs of 1,226.37 and the lows of $1,050.00. If the gold cycle holds true, we expect that gold tops the $1,226.37 marker by April or May of 2011.

On the on the upside we will also be looking for gold to make a nature cyclic high in October or November of 2011. It’s impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy; however when we look at the cycles in gold this reads as a pretty good bet.

No matter what happens we expect gold will offer some great trading opportunities that investors and traders should be able to take advantage of.

Watch the free video here: Gold going higher?

As I always discuss- in trading one should approach gold or any other market with a game plan and proper money management stops. The key to success in this decade will be an investors willingness to move in and out of asset classes such as gold and be well diversified into more than one asset class. That way you wont be left holding the bag for the next 25 years. Our World Commodity Portfolio is a good example of this approach and one I believe will serve investors well in the coming years.

Bob Prechter Reveals the Most Dangerous Gold & Silver Myths

A FREE report keeps you on the right side of precious metals

By Nico Isaac

Right now, the gold BULL-ion bandwagon is more crowded than a New York subway train during rush hour. But before you squeeze your way into the crowd of passengers, you should know one thing: Those steering the course are using outdated maps based on ill-conceived notions and illusory hopes.

Where can you get better information about gold and silver? Take a look at the latest FREE resource from Club EWI, the Gold and Silver eBook. This riveting, 40-page eBook pools the recent and archived writings on the precious metals by EWI president Bob Prechter himself. The result is a comprehensive collection that spans the last four decades of gold and silver history to expose the most dangerous market myths. Off the top is this familiar bit of “wisdom” from the school of Alan Greenspan:

It is impossible to foresee the end of major trends in precious metals BEFORE they occur. Hindsight is foresight.

NOT SO, says Prechter. Since gold and silver established their all-time record peaks in 1979-80, he has stayed one step ahead of the metals’ history-making turns. Here, Chapters 2 and 3 of the Gold & Silver eBook offer up the following excerpts from Bob’s earliest writings:

Silver

  • November 18, 1979, Elliott Wave Theorist (EWT): With silver prices hovering near $20/ounce, Bob wrote: “If my wave count is valid, silver can be expected to drop back down to between $4 and $6, $3.20-$3.49 some time in the next decade.”

What actually happened: From there, silver prices embarked on a 13-year bear market that saw prices plunge into the $3.50-per-ounce area.

  • March 26, 1993, EWT: “Silver is approaching a major bottom” of its decades-plus long downtrend.

What actually happened: Silver found its low in 1993.

Gold

  • December 9, 1979, EWT: “After 13 years of rise, Elliott counts now suggest an important top is near in gold. The downside target is at least $282.50.”

What actually happened: While the price projection for gold’s peak was far off the mark (the Theorist cited the upper $480/ounce range), the time target of early 1980 was met with accuracy. From its 1980 peak, gold prices plummeted nearly 70% before hitting bottom in 2001.

  • At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, 1995: “One attractive termination date for the gold bottom is New Year’s Day of 2001 (plus/minus a month). That way, it will have lasted a … a lean 21 years from the 1980 peak.”

What actually happened: Gold registered its low at $255 on February 20, 2001.

Now that we can see that it is possible to benefit from foresight about the end of major trends in precious metals, what about these other popular notions —

  • Gold always goes up in recession and depressions.
  • Gold always performs better than stocks in economic downturns.
  • Gold and Silver are just beginning (as in the year 2010) their biggest bull market runs ever.

Download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. Is gold a simple buy-and-hold at today’s prices? The independent insights in this valuable ebook deliver Prechter’s complete analysis and help you decide how to – and how not to – incorporate gold and silver successfully into your own investment strategy. Learn more, and download your Gold and Silver eBook here.


Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.