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deflation

DJIA Priced in Gold: What It Means for the Long-Term Trend

Timeless Trading Lesson

Of the many forward-looking market indicators we at EWI employ, one of the most interesting tools (and least discussed in the financial media) is the DJIA priced in gold — “the real money,” as EWI’s president Robert Prechter calls it. What implications might the present position of Dow/gold have for the long-term trend of the nominal Dow? In this video, Elliott Wave International’s Steven Hochberg shows you several revealing charts that answer this question.

(Discover why deflation is the biggest threat to your money — download your FREE 90-page eBook now.)

Discover how Elliott wave analysis gives you a consistently logical explanation and debunk one of the major myths of what caused the Asian Financial Crisis in the free video, “The Real-Time Power of Elliott Wave Analysis: Debunking the Myths of the Asian Financial Crisis.” Access Your FREE Video Now.


Download your FREE deflation eBook now.

Newly updated for 2010, Prechter’s 90-page eBook reveals why deflation is the biggest threat to your money right now. You will learn how to prepare for
deflation, survive it, and maybe even prosper during it, so you’ll be ready for the next buying opportunity of a lifetime when deflation is over. Download
your FREE deflation eBook now
.

You Still Believe The Fed Can Stop Deflation?

Recent history proves that the Fed’s “control” is just an illusion.

By Editorial Staff

Think back to the fall of 2007. The deflationary “liquidity crunch” that over the next year-and-a-half cuts the DJIA in half, decimates commodities, real estate and world markets is only starting. Almost no one believes that the crash is coming — to a large degree, because everyone is convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, with Ben Bernanke at the helm, will never allow deflation to happen: It can just print money!

The excerpt you are about to read is from EWI president Robert Prechter’s October 19, 2007, Elliott Wave Theorist. If you find it insightful, read more of Bob’s writings in the free Club EWI resource, “Robert Prechter’s Most Important Writings on Deflation.” (Details below.)

You cannot pick up a newspaper, turn on financial TV or read an economist’s report without hearing that the Fed’s latest discount-rate cut is bullish because it indicates the Fed’s decision to “pump liquidity” into the system. This opinion is so completely wrong that it is hard to believe its ubiquity.

First of all, the Fed does not “decide” where it wants interest rates. All it does is follow the market. Figure 17 proves it. Wherever the T-bill rate goes, the Fed’s “target rate” for federal funds immediately follows. That’s all there is to it.

The FED Follows the Market

If you refuse to believe your eyes, then listen to the chairman; Alan Greenspan is very clear on this point. On September 17, a commentator on CNBC asked, “Did you keep the interest rates too low for too long in 2002-2003?” Greenspan immediately responded, “The market did.” Rates were not “too low” or the period “too long,” either, because the market, not the Fed, made the decision on the level and the time, and the market is never wrong; it is what it is. If investors in trillions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasury debt worldwide had demanded higher interest, they would have gotten it, period.

Second, falling interest rates are almost never bullish. All you have to do to understand this point is look at Figure 18.

Falling Rates are not Bullish

Interest rates fell persistently through three of the greatest bear markets in history: 1929-1932 in the Dow, 1990-2003 in the Japanese Nikkei, and 2000-2002 in the NASDAQ. The only comparably deep bear market in the past 80 years in which interest rates rose took place in the 1970s when the Value Line index dropped 74%. Economists all draw upon this experience, but they ignore the others. Today’s environment of extensive investment leverage and an Everest of debt in the banking system is far more like 1929 in the U.S. and 1989 in Japan than it is like the 1970s. Why is a decline in interest rates bearish in such an environment? Because it means a decline in the demand for credit. When people want less of something, the price goes down.

The recent drop in rates indicates less borrowing, which means that the primary prop under investment prices — the expansion of credit — is weakening. That’s one reason why stock prices fell in 2000-2002 and why they are vulnerable now. This is the opposite of “pumping liquidity”; it’s a slackening in liquidity.

Read the rest of this important 63-page report, “Robert Prechter’s Most Important Writings on Deflation” online now, free! All you need is to create a free Club EWI profile. You’ll learn:

  • When Does Deflation Occur?
  • What Triggers the Change to Deflation
  • What Makes Deflation Likely Today?
  • How Big a Deflation?
  • Why Bernanke Has Been Powerless Against Deflation
  • The Big Bailout Bluff
  • MORE

Read more about the Deflation Survival Guide here.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

2010’s Most Important Investment Report

By Editorial Staff

You got your brackets filled out before the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament’s opening game on Thursday afternoon. Good — now sit back and enjoy the games. But if you’re looking for a good read during the numerous and lengthy time outs, we’ve got just the thing. It’s the most important investment report you will read in 2010. Forget the theoretical and hypothetical sorts of analysis that occupy so much space online. Bob Prechter gives 22 real-life examples of how deflation is beginning to spread in the U.S. economy — along with 13 charts that make the examples even clearer.

You want to know whether to prepare for inflation or deflation? This report will answer your questions. Read this excerpt to see what we mean. Oh, and try to forget that a No. 2 seed (Villanova) almost got upset in the first round and that Georgetown, a No. 3 seed, got beat by Ohio University, a 14 seed.

* * * * *

States Are Broke and Approaching Insolvency
While state “regulators” clamp down on profligate banks, the same states’ legislatures continue to blow money. For years, state governments have been spending every dime they could squeeze out of taxpayers plus all they could borrow. (The lone exception is Nebraska, which prohibits state indebtedness over $100k. Whatever Nebraska’s official position on any other issue, by this action alone it is the most enlightened state government in the union.)

But now even states’ borrowing ability has run into a brick wall, because the basis of their ability to pay interest—namely, tax receipts—is evaporating. The goose—the poor, overdriven taxpayer—is dying, and the production of golden eggs, which allowed state governments to binge for the past 40 years, is falling. The only reason that states did not either default on their loans or drastically cut their spending over the past year is that the federal government sucked a trillion dollars out of the loan market and handed it to countless undeserving entities, including state governments.

“It’s hard to imagine what happens when stimulus money runs out,” says a budget expert. (USA, 10/29/09) But it is not at all hard to imagine what will happen. Conquer the Crash imagined state insolvency seven years ago. The breezy transfer of money from innocent savers to state spenders is going to end, and when it does, states will cut spending and “services” drastically. They will also default on their debts, which will be deflationary.

Elliott Wave International’s latest free report puts 2010 into perspective like no other. The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read in 2010 is a must-read for all independent-minded investors. The 13-page report is available for free download now. Learn more here.


Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Surviving Deflation: First, Understand It

Deflation is more than just “falling prices.” Robert Prechter explains why.

By Editorial Staff
The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free Club EWI resource, “The Guide to Understanding Deflation. Robert Prechter’s Most Important Writings on Deflation.”

The Primary Precondition of Deflation
Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton, in a 1957 letter, summarized his observations this way: “In reading a history of major depressions in the U.S. from 1830 on, I was impressed with the following: (a) All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common.”

“The Fed Will Stop Deflation”
I am tired of hearing people insist that the Fed can expand credit all it wants. Sometimes an analogy clarifies a subject, so let’s try one.

It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing Jaguar automobiles and providing them to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating Jaguar plants all over the country, subsidizing production with tax money. To everyone’s delight, it offers these luxury cars for sale at 50 percent off the old price. People flock to the showrooms and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the government cuts the price in half again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so it lowers the price to $900 each. People return to the stores to buy two or three, or half a dozen. Why not? Look how cheap they are! Buyers give Jaguars to their kids and park an extra one on the lawn. Finally, the country is awash in Jaguars. Alas, sales slow again, and the government panics. It must move more Jaguars, or, according to its theory — ironically now made fact — the economy will recede. People are working three days a week just to pay their taxes so the government can keep producing more Jaguars. If Jaguars stop moving, the economy will stop. So the government begins giving Jaguars away. A few more cars move out of the showrooms, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more Jaguars. They don’t care if they’re free. They can’t find a use for them. Production of Jaguars ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of Jaguars. Tax collections collapse, the factories close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to buy gasoline, so many of the Jaguars rust away to worthlessness. The number of Jaguars — at best — returns to the level it was before the program began.

The same thing can happen with credit.

It may sound crazy, but suppose the government were to decide that the health of the nation depends upon producing credit and providing it to as many people as possible. To facilitate that goal, it begins operating credit-production plants all over the country, called Federal Reserve Banks. To everyone’s delight, these banks offer the credit for sale at below market rates. People flock to the banks and buy. Later, sales slow down, so the banks cut the price again. More people rush in and buy. Sales again slow, so they lower the price to one percent. People return to the banks to buy even more credit. Why not? Look how cheap it is! Borrowers use credit to buy houses, boats and an extra Jaguar to park out on the lawn. Finally, the country is awash in credit. Alas, sales slow again, and the banks panic. They must move more credit, or, according to its theory — ironically now made fact — the economy will recede. People are working three days a week just to pay the interest on their debt to the banks so the banks can keep offering more credit. If credit stops moving, the economy will stop. So the banks begin giving credit away, at zero percent interest. A few more loans move through the tellers’ windows, but then it ends. Nobody wants any more credit. They don’t care if it’s free. They can’t find a use for it. Production of credit ceases. It takes years to work through the overhanging supply of credit. Interest payments collapse, banks close, and unemployment soars. The economy is wrecked. People can’t afford to pay interest on their debts, so many bonds deteriorate to worthlessness. The value of credit — at best — returns to the level it was before the program began.

Jaguars, anyone?

Read the rest of this important 63-page deflation study now, free! Here’s what you’ll learn:What Triggers the Change to Deflation

  • Why Deflationary Crashes and Depressions Go Together
  • Financial Values Can Disappear
  • Deflation is a Global Story
  • What Makes Deflation Likely Today?
  • How Big a Deflation?
  • More

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Bob Prechter Points Out The Many Signs Of Deflation

Yes, You Heard Us Right

By Nico Isaac

Everywhere you look, the mainstream financial experts are pinning on their “WIN 2″ buttons in a show of solidarity against what they see as the number one threat to the U.S. economy: Whip Inflation Now.

There’s just one problem: They’re primed to fight the wrong enemy. Fact is, despite ten rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board to record low levels plus $13 trillion (and counting) in government bailout money over the past three years — the Demand For and Availability Of credit is plunging. Without a borrower or lender, the massive supply of debt LOSES value, bringing down every exposed investment like one long, toppling row of dominoes.

This is the condition known as Deflation.

And, in a special, expanded November 19, 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter uncovered more than a dozen “value depreciating” developments underway in the U.S. economy as the two main engines of credit expansion sputter: Banks and Consumers. Off the top of the Theorist’s watch list are these “Continuing and Looming Deflationary Forces”:

  • A riveting chart of Treasury Holdings as a Percentage of US Chartered Bank Assets since 1952 shows how “safe” bank deposits really are. In short: today’s banks are about 95% invested in mortgages via the purchase of federal agency securities. Unlike Treasuries, IOU’s with homes as collateral have “tremendous potential” to fall in dollar value.
  • Loan Availability to Small Businesses has fallen to the lowest level since the interest rate crises of 1980. In Bob Prechter’s own words: “The means of debt repayment [via business growth] are evaporating, which implies further deflationary pressure within the banking system.”
  • An all-inclusive close-up of the Number Of Banks Tightening Their Lending Standards since 1997 has this message to impart: Since peaking in October 2008, lending restrictions have soared, thereby significantly reducing the overall credit supply.
  • Both residential and commercial mortgages are plummeting as home/business owners walk away from their leases at an increasing rate.
  • The major sources of bank revenue — consumer credit and state taxes — are plunging as more people opt to pay DOWN their debt. Also, a compelling chart of leveraged buyouts since 1995 shows a third catalyst for the credit binge — private equity — on the decline.

All that is just the beginning. The November 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist includes 13 pages of commentary, riveting charts, and unparalleled insight that make it impossible to ignore the deflationary shift underway in the financial landscape. For that reason, we have compiled the most timely insights from the entire, two-part Theorist in a special article for Club EWI members. In our opinion, this bundle of exlusive Theorist excerpts are “the most important investment report you’ll read in 2010.”

Elliott Wave International’s latest free report puts 2010 into perspective like no other. The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read in 2010 is a must-read for all independent-minded investors. The 13-page report is available for free download now. Learn more here.


Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.