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Commodities

Target Price for Gold

by Adam Hewison

A little while ago I made a video that projected some amazing levels for gold. Given the strong upward trend in gold and the price action on Tuesday the 5th of October, it is worthwhile looking at this video again:

This short video, will certainly give you some interesting price targets for gold that are based on sound trading principles. I hope you enjoy the video, and as always we would love to have your feedback on our blog.

Why gold will not make new highs or lows this year

by Adam Hewison

Gold has had some dramatic moves in the last eighteen months and we expect it will have some equally dramatic moves in the future, but not right now.

Watch the free video here: Gold going higher?

While I recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate about; the purpose of this article is not to take sides either with the gold bugs or those who reject the argument that gold is forever. Rather, I want to discuss my interpretation of the markets cycle.

After spot gold made an all-time high against the dollar on December 2 at $1,226.37, gold has been in retreat mode. For the for the past several months gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration from bulls and bears alike.

Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here’s why:

Gold first started trading in the 80s while I was on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago as a member of the International Monetary Market, (IMM) which was at that time a division of the CME now the CME Group. When gold opened up the public clamored to buy into the gold futures market and guess who sold it to them? Thats right it was the pros- the guys who made their living trading. As a result, gold hit an all-time high of around $850 an ounce back then and it took almost 25 years for gold to move over that level, at least in dollar terms. I dont know what your timeline is, but 25 to 30 years is an awful long time to get even again.

So what is really happening in this market?

Everyone is aware of the problems in Europe with Greece, Portugal and a host of yet to be named countries. We all know that the huge amount of money being printed, coupled with the bank failures abroad contribute to the dollars declining value. These events, in conjunction with the American governments actions, also contribute to the devaluation of the dollar. The government claims that this is beneficial to exports, but the bottom line is that the purchasing power of the American dollar continues to erode in world markets.

Based on the declining value of world currency against gold you might ask- why isnt gold trading at $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce? What is wrong with this market? This is because a great deal of what goes into the gold market is psychological and reacts to cyclic trends driven by both psychological and economic factors.

So what does all this have to do with the price of gold now? It has everything to do with gold and nothing to do with gold.

Here is what I’ve been able to observe in the last several years in gold and seems to be holding true. It is something that you should pay attention to if you’re interested in the next big move in the gold market.

Before gold can move higher it needs to create what I call an “energy field”. The most recent energy fields in gold were between May 12, 2006 and September 20, 2007. This 17 month energy field saw gold prices oscillate between a broad trading range bound by $730.08 (upside) and $541.80 (downside). That energy field produced enough power to propel gold to the new high of $1,012.40 on March 17, 2008. This marked the first time gold exceeded, in dollar terms, the highs set in the early 80s mentioned earlier.

The energy fields I have observed for gold are taking somewhere between 17 and 18 months to complete. If the energy field holds, then the December 3rd 2009 high of $1,226.37 should remain in place for quite some time. If the same cycle remains true then the recent lows that we witnessed, at $1,050, should also remain intact as they represent the 15 to 16 month cycle low.

With the lows in place the next question becomes when is the next cyclical high in gold? Based on the existing cycle, we can expect the next major gold high in 2011.

To summarize: I expect gold to be locked in a broad trading range for the next 12 months bounded by the December 09 highs of 1,226.37 and the lows of $1,050.00. If the gold cycle holds true, we expect that gold tops the $1,226.37 marker by April or May of 2011.

On the on the upside we will also be looking for gold to make a nature cyclic high in October or November of 2011. It’s impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy; however when we look at the cycles in gold this reads as a pretty good bet.

No matter what happens we expect gold will offer some great trading opportunities that investors and traders should be able to take advantage of.

Watch the free video here: Gold going higher?

As I always discuss- in trading one should approach gold or any other market with a game plan and proper money management stops. The key to success in this decade will be an investors willingness to move in and out of asset classes such as gold and be well diversified into more than one asset class. That way you wont be left holding the bag for the next 25 years. Our World Commodity Portfolio is a good example of this approach and one I believe will serve investors well in the coming years.

ETFs For Commodity Investors

Exchange Traded Funds
In recent years, there is one type of fund that has hit the commodities market creating a major impact. This comes in the form of exchange traded funds. United States markets alone hold more than $10 billion in assets, as of 2009. The investor has many choices when it comes to using these funds. They use them to purchase exposure to individual commodity sectors, gold, oil, broad-based commodity futures indexes, and silver. What makes these funds so popular is the fact that they are very easy to purchase. They are purchased as an exchange-traded fund as an investor would purchase any other security. Exchange traded funds are considered very affordable because there is no commission charge for purchase and they cost approximately 75% less than a commodity mutual fund.

Exchange-Traded Funds Linked to Individual Commodities Futures
Futures are very popular with investors, which can be considered the home of commodities-linked exchange trade funds. The way this works is that this type of fund will buy futures with leverage, but they will only offer a small part of the cost of the contract. Then the remaining balance will go to treasuries, who will in turn generate income from the interest that is accumulated. When an investor begins to inquire about the return he or she will get on their investment, the answer can be increasingly complicated. This is because it is based on many different contingencies that begin with roll yield, collateral interest income, and ends with any changes in spot price.

[Read more…]

Free video: Is Gold Heading Higher or Lower?

This short video shows two important elements that are in play right now and how they could determine the next big trend in gold.

The video is free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

Watch the video here: Is Gold Poised to Go Higher or Lower?

Crude Oil Cycle: Trading Video

One thing jumped out at me recently when I took a look at the crude oil market.

It appears as though crude oil has an amazing cyclic quality that can be timed quite accurately with MarketClub’s “Triangle” technology. In this new short video, I showcase this cycle and how you can take advantage of it.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

Watch the video here: Crude Oil…what does the chart say?

Video: A Fresh Look at Crude Oil

Today we are looking at a January crude oil contract, but this can be any of the other contract months.

We’ve looked at this market before and were expecting it to go higher. It did not, however, fulfill that promise and with a red weekly “triangle” in place, it appears as though this market is heading down, but is it?

In today’s short video I discover an interesting cycle that I want to share with you. This cycle along with our MACD indicator, daily and weekly “triangles” are beginning to look extremely interesting.

I strongly recommend taking a few minutes out of your day to watch this educational and informative video on crude oil. Watch the video here. (4:21)