By Editorial Staff
You got your brackets filled out before the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament’s opening game on Thursday afternoon. Good — now sit back and enjoy the games. But if you’re looking for a good read during the numerous and lengthy time outs, we’ve got just the thing. It’s the most important investment report you will read in 2010. Forget the theoretical and hypothetical sorts of analysis that occupy so much space online. Bob Prechter gives 22 real-life examples of how deflation is beginning to spread in the U.S. economy — along with 13 charts that make the examples even clearer.
You want to know whether to prepare for inflation or deflation? This report will answer your questions. Read this excerpt to see what we mean. Oh, and try to forget that a No. 2 seed (Villanova) almost got upset in the first round and that Georgetown, a No. 3 seed, got beat by Ohio University, a 14 seed.
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States Are Broke and Approaching Insolvency
While state “regulators” clamp down on profligate banks, the same states’ legislatures continue to blow money. For years, state governments have been spending every dime they could squeeze out of taxpayers plus all they could borrow. (The lone exception is Nebraska, which prohibits state indebtedness over $100k. Whatever Nebraska’s official position on any other issue, by this action alone it is the most enlightened state government in the union.)But now even states’ borrowing ability has run into a brick wall, because the basis of their ability to pay interest—namely, tax receipts—is evaporating. The goose—the poor, overdriven taxpayer—is dying, and the production of golden eggs, which allowed state governments to binge for the past 40 years, is falling. The only reason that states did not either default on their loans or drastically cut their spending over the past year is that the federal government sucked a trillion dollars out of the loan market and handed it to countless undeserving entities, including state governments.
“It’s hard to imagine what happens when stimulus money runs out,” says a budget expert. (USA, 10/29/09) But it is not at all hard to imagine what will happen. Conquer the Crash imagined state insolvency seven years ago. The breezy transfer of money from innocent savers to state spenders is going to end, and when it does, states will cut spending and “services” drastically. They will also default on their debts, which will be deflationary.
Elliott Wave International’s latest free report puts 2010 into perspective like no other. The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read in 2010 is a must-read for all independent-minded investors. The 13-page report is available for free download now. Learn more here.
Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.
Dow’s Winning Streak Screeches to a Halt
by Javier C. Hernandez
The Dow Jones industrial average was stopped in its tracks on Friday as it tried for a ninth consecutive session of gains, a feat last achieved in 1996.
A sharp drop in the price of oil weighed on shares of energy companies, and by day’s end, stocks were firmly in negative territory.
The market was hurt as the price of oil retreated nearly 2 percent, briefly dipping below $80 a barrel. That bolstered the appeal of the dollar, which strengthened against the euro and the British pound amid concerns about unwieldy deficits in Europe.
Despite the losses, the Dow ended the week 1.1 percent higher. On Friday, it fell 37.19 points, or 0.35 percent, to 10,741.98. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 5.93 points, or 0.51 percent, to 1,159.90. It was 0.85 percent higher for the week.
The Nasdaq fell 16.87 points, or 0.71 percent, to 2,374.41, posting a 0.28 percent gain for the week. It was held back by the smartphone maker Palm, which fell more than 29 percent after offering a disappointing revenue forecast.
A decision by the central bank of India to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly two years brought jitters to the world’s equity markets. Analysts worry that the announcement could encourage other high-growth countries to follow suit as concerns about inflation grow. But investors bristled at the prospect of higher rates, which make lending more expensive and can hurt profit.
Currency markets were in flux on Friday amid lingering uncertainty about Greece, which is grappling with a wide budget deficit as deadlines for debt payments loom. No clear resolution has emerged for the nation, with Germany recently backing off its support of a European-led rescue package. Europe’s wealthier countries are now looking to the International Monetary Fund for help.
Germany’s words exposed new fissures in the effort to ward off a crisis for the Continent and its monetary union.
“It does not look like Europe has a united face to deal with the Greece situation,” said Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The pound also weakened, falling more than 1 percent against the dollar, as an official at the Bank of England raised the possibility that the British economy could fall into another downturn. Andrew Sentance, a member of the monetary policy committee, told CNBC, “There is some risk of a double-dip recession but it is not the central forecast.”
Investors also remain concerned that looming elections could result in a fractured Parliament that would be unable to tackle Britain’s deficit problems.
The dollar benefited from those concerns, strengthening against most world currencies. Mr. Chandler said a consensus was emerging that the Federal Reserve would soon move to raise the rate it charged banks on short-term loans, known as the discount rate.
Interest rates were steady. The Treasury’s 10-year note fell 4/32, to 99 14/32, and the yield rose to 3.69 percent, from 3.68 percent late Thursday.
The stock market’s movements were clouded on Friday because of “quadruple witching,” the expiration of futures and options for stocks and stock indexes.
Despite Friday’s losses, investors said they thought some optimism had returned to the market. Economic data has been largely positive lately, and traders are expecting first-quarter earnings to show strong revenue growth. Many also say they think a government report on the labor market to be released next month will show that the economy created jobs in March.
“Investors are starting to get their confidence back, starting to get their feet back underneath them,” said M. Jake Dollarhide, chief executive of Longbow Asset Management.
But recent gains for the market have been small, and trading has been light on some of the most enthusiastic days, raising doubts about the durability of an upward turn.
“It’s a very tenuous, nervous time for Americans,” Mr. Dollarhide added.
New York Times