Mountain of Debt: Rising debt may be next crisis

Mountain of Debt: Legacy of debt from Founding Fathers not celebrated on Independence Day

  • On Friday July 3, 2009, 11:20 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Founding Fathers left one legacy not celebrated on Independence Day but which affects us all. It’s the national debt.

The country first got into debt to help pay for the Revolutionary War. Growing ever since, the debt stands today at a staggering $11.5 trillion — equivalent to over $37,000 for each and every American. And it’s expanding by over $1 trillion a year.

The mountain of debt easily could become the next full-fledged economic crisis without firm action from Washington, economists of all stripes warn.

"Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told Congress.

Higher taxes, or reduced federal benefits and services — or a combination of both — may be the inevitable consequences.

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The price of trading expertise

The price of trading expertise = 67 cents…really?

Today I’d like to talk a little bit about what you’re paying… or should be paying for your education.

Your trading education is the key to your future success and you can’t settle for low quality material…but right now your capital is tight. So what do you do?

INO TV, that’s what you do!

What’s inside INO TV?

  • Over 290 unique trading seminars for less then .34 cents per seminar.
  • Access to 149 of the most trusted trading and investing coaches in the world for .67 cents per author.
  • 390 hours of streaming education for .25 cents per hour.

INO TV is the only service available that gives you streaming video and audio access to the world’s most sought after authors for such a low price.

This is not a thrift store offer…INO TV is touted by thousands of members and over 500 site owners. They all agree that INO TV is the best investment in your future.

Isn’t it time you invest in your future?

Learn more about INO TV.

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467K jobs cut in June; jobless rate at 9.5 percent

Employers cut larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June; jobless rate ticks up to 9.5 percent

* By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
* On Thursday July 2, 2009, 11:02 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — Employers cut a larger-than-expected 467,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent. Workers also saw weekly wages fall, suggesting Americans will have little appetite to spend and the economy’s road to recovery will be bumpy.

The Labor Department report, released Thursday, showed that even as the recession flashes signs of easing, companies likely will want to keep a lid on costs and be wary of hiring until they feel certain the economy is on solid ground.

June’s payroll reductions were deeper than the 363,000 that economists expected and average weekly earnings dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year.

However, the rise in the unemployment rate from 9.4 percent in May wasn’t as sharp as the expected 9.6 percent. Still, many economists predict the jobless rate will hit 10 percent this year, and keep rising into next year, before falling back.

All told, 14.7 million people were unemployed in June. Read More »

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S&P 500 Update July 1st

Today I’m going to take another look at the S&P 500 Index. It appears that some of the rose coloring on traders’ glasses is beginning to wear thin. Many more traders now perceive this as a two way trading market as opposed to a one way street we witnessed in March and April.

I am going to be analyzing a daily S&P index chart and making some observations that I think potentially could work out if certain elements fall into place.

At the present time our “Trade Triangle” technology is indicating a neutral stance in this market. With the -55 reading our “Trade Triangles” are indicating a trading range which could possibly be an early sign of a reversal.

You can watch this video with my compliments and there is no registration requirements. I would love to get your feedback about this video on our blog.

S&P 500 Update July 1st

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Manufacturing index shrinks less than expected

Manufacturing index shrinks less than expected ISM manufacturing index shrinks less than expected in June; best showing since August

  • By Tali Arbel, AP Business Writer
  • On Wednesday July 1, 2009, 11:12 am EDT NEW YORK (AP) –

A report on manufacturing activity shows the sector contracted less than expected in June, posting its best showing since last August and another sign that a recovery may be near.

Manufacturing sectors overseas also are rebounding a bit, according to new reports, but other U.S. economic data were mixed. Construction spending fell more than expected in May, while pending home sales edged up.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index registered 44.8 in June, up from 42.8 in May. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 44.5.

"A slow recovery for manufacturing is forming," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction. June’s reading marks the 17th straight month of deterioration in manufacturing.

Still, there is an encouraging pattern in recent ISM manufacturing reports. This is the second straight month that the index has been above 41.2 after seven consecutive declines. The ISM says a reading above that level is consistent with expansion in the overall economy — even though the manufacturing sector itself is still shrinking.

"This latest gain suggests the recession may finally have ended at the close of the second quarter, a mere 19 months after it started," said Capital Economics’ analysts. "However, there is little evidence that this tepid recovery will turn into anything much stronger." Read More »

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US service sector contracts, but at slower pace

US service sector index contracts for 7th straight month; pace of decline slower than expected

* Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
* On Tuesday May 5, 2009, 11:26 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — A private measure of the U.S. services sector contracted for the seventh straight month in April but at a slower pace, the latest sign the economic downturn could be moderating.

The services index from the Institute for Supply Management, a Tempe, Arizona-based trade group of purchasing executives, came in at 43.7 in April compared with 40.8 in March. Any reading below 50 indicates the service sector, where most Americans work, is contracting.

Still, Tuesday’s reading was higher than economists expected and provided another sign the economy’s steep downturn could be bottoming out.

The services index is based on a survey of the institute’s members in 18 industries and covers such indicators as new orders, employment and inventories.

New orders surged last month, rising to 47, from 38.8 in March. Economists were encouraged by the jump and said it could be a sign of better days ahead since increased demand is a signal that production will need to rise in coming months.

“The services sector is beginning to show signs that the worst may be behind it,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

About three-quarters of Americans work in service-providing industries such as hotels, retail, education and health care. The index showed that seven industries reported growth in April while 11 contracted.

The employment category of the index also showed a gain, rising to 37 from 32.3 in March. But that reading is stuck far below the 50 seen as a break-even point.

Economists believe the national unemployment report, scheduled for release Friday, will show a net total of 620,000 jobs lost in April, slightly below March’s tally of 663,000. They expect the jobless rate, which hit a 25-year high of 8.5 percent in March, rose to 8.9 percent last month.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that the economy should pull out of a recession and start growing again later this year, but he cautioned that the unemployment rate could remain high for some time.

Retailers have not been immune from the job cuts. Outdoors outfitter L.L. Bean Inc. notified employees last month that it planned to lay off 200 to 240 workers in Maine because of lagging sales.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first three months of this year after shrinking 6.3 percent in the final quarter of 2008. That marked the worst six-month performance in a half-century.

Many economists are forecasting that the GDP will drop at annual rate of between 1 and 3 percent in the current quarter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-service-sector-contracts-apf-15134829.html

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PowerShares Pulls Plug on 19 ETFs

From ETFguide.com
On Monday May 4, 2009, 5:02 pm EDT

SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) - Invesco PowerShares Capital Management has announced its plan to liquidate 19 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within its family.

Among the ETFs being liquidated are 12 funds that follow FTSE RAFI indices. Each of these funds selects stocks with a passive strategy and weights each of the stock index components based upon various fundamental measures such as earnings and price-to-book valuations. This type of methodology is known as ‘fundamental indexing.’ The concept for these particular funds never struck a chord with investors.

‘After carefully evaluating numerous factors including shareholder considerations, length of time on the market, asset levels and the potential for future growth, we proposed closing certain portfolios that have not gained sufficient acceptance with investors,’ said Bruce Bond, president and CEO of Invesco PowerShares. ‘We remain fully committed to the ETF industry and expect to offer new, exciting products in the months ahead.’

At the end of March, the PowerShares product lineup had $25.8 billion invested in a total of 135 ETFs. With around $12.3 billion in assets, the PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) represents roughly half of all ETF assets at the PowerShares. Other successful products within the company’s lineup include the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio (NYSEArca: PBW - News), which has around $540 million in assets and the PowerShares Dynamic Market Portfolio (NYSEArca: PWC - News), which has $252 million.

In early May 2009, the Funds will begin the process of closing down and liquidating their respective portfolios. This process will cause each Fund’s holdings to deviate from the securities included in its underlying index and each Fund to increase its cash holdings, which may lead to increased tracking error.  Effective May 19, 2009, the Funds will be closed to new investors.

Shareholders may sell their holdings prior to May 19, 2009, and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer.  Shareholders of record on the close of business on May 18, 2009 will receive cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares as of May 22, 2009, which will include any capital gains and dividends, in the cash portion of their brokerage accounts. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over their adjusted basis in such shares.

The final day of trading for the ETFs listed below will be on May 18, 2009.

–PowerShares Dynamic Aggressive Growth Portfolio (NYSEArca: PGZ - News)

–PowerShares Dynamic Asia Pacific Portfolio (NYSEArca: PUA - News)

–PowerShares Dynamic Deep Value Portfolio (NYSEArca: PVM - News)

–PowerShares Dynamic Europe Portfolio (NYSEArca: PEH - News)

–PowerShares Dynamic Hardware & Consumer Elec Portfolio (NYSEArca: PHW - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Small-Mid Portfolio (NYSE Arca: PDQ)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Basic Materials (Nasdaq: PRFM - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Consumer Goods (Nasdaq: PRFG - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Consumer Services (Nasdaq: PRFS - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Energy (Nasdaq: PRFE - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Europe Small-Mid (NYSEArca: PWD - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Financials (Nasdaq: PRFF - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Health Care (Nasdaq: PRFH - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Industrials (Nasdaq: PRFN - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Telecom & Tech (Nasdaq: PRFQ - News)

–PowerShares FTSE RAFI Utilities (Nasdaq: PRFU - News)

–PowerShares High Growth Rate Dividend (NYSEArca: PHJ - News)

–PowerShares International Listed Private Equity (NYSEArca: PFP - News)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PowerShares-Pulls-Plug-on-19-etfguide-15125380.html?.v=1

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You Don't Have to Put Up with Rising Fund Costs

From Morningstar: 

Gregg Wolper
On Tuesday May 5, 2009, 7:00 am EDT

The stock market’s up. Some earnings reports aren’t as horrible as feared. Politicians looking at the economy see signs of hope.

Well, good. But for most people, times remain tough. Many have lost jobs, know people who have, or fear the ax might still fall. Even those still working have had wages frozen and benefits cut.

Yet the monthly bills keep pouring in. In response to this squeeze, many of you are cutting back on costs wherever possible, news reports say. Fast-food or casual dining instead of fancy restaurants–or maybe just a plate of spaghetti at home. Bringing lunch to work is back in style. The store brand at your local grocery suddenly seems worth a shot.

In this climate, it may seem odd that so many mutual funds expect you to pay a lot more for their services.

In a sense, that trend is not as strange as it appears. Most fund advisors aren’t actively boosting their fees. In general, it’s just mathematics: Funds have a certain amount of fixed costs, and when assets decline as sharply as they have in the bear market, the percentage of fund assets devoted to expenses–the expense ratio–can rise substantially even if the fund’s advisory fee hasn’t budged and the fund hasn’t spent any more on printing or legal bills. This effect was heightened in cases where the advisory fee did rise (in percentage terms) because declining asset levels fell through automatic breakpoints that had trimmed those percentages as assets grew.

However, these explanations only go so far. Mathematics might explain rising expense ratios, but that doesn’t mean you must accept them. After all, there’s no law saying that a fund’s expense ratio must rise. Funds can waive a portion of the management fee–that often happens with new offerings–or can otherwise cut costs to keep that ratio from climbing (that is, not all of a fund’s costs are completely “fixed”).

There’s no rule stopping you from switching to a cheaper fund if a once-reasonable charge has become less tolerable. At a time when many of you are slashing your grocery bill and telling your kids to reconsider their college choices, why simply accept higher costs from your funds?

You might prefer not to sell completely, owing to tax concerns or other reasons. But at the very least, take a look at the expense ratio on the “financial highlights” page when your annual and semiannual reports arrive in the mail. (You can also find these documents by going to the fund’s page on Morningstar.com and clicking on SEC Filings in the menu bar at left.) If that expense ratio rose more than a tad, call up the fund and tell them that you don’t appreciate it. Or, as Morningstar’s Russel Kinnel suggested in the column cited above, contact the fund’s board of directors. If a great many of you let funds know that they can’t count on passive acceptance of higher costs, it could pay off down the road even if it doesn’t bring immediate results.

(Note that the expense ratio in these reports refers to the past year or half-year in question. For a more up-to-date figure, see the fund’s latest prospectus, if one has been issued recently.)

Some good funds understand the concept. Take Sound Shore (NASDAQ:SSHFX - News). Advised by the unassuming but excellent Sound Shore Management, its assets dropped from $2.7 billion at the end of 2007 to $1.6 billion a year later. But its expense ratio for both years was 0.92%. Granted, the expense ratio isn’t based on the year-end asset figure; it’s calculated on an ongoing basis, and the sharpest decline in assets didn’t strike until late in 2008. So shareholders will get socked with a huge increase this year, right? Don’t count on it. In its new prospectus released just last week, Sound Shore estimated that its 2009 expense ratio will rise a mere 2 basis points–to 0.94%.

Then there’s UMB Scout Stock (NASDAQ:UMBSX - News), a solid fund that shares a manager with the highly esteemed UMB Scout International (NASDAQ:UMBWX - News). It’s also a sibling to one of the funds highlighted in a recent Fund Spy column about tiny funds that deserve more attention. UMB Scout Stock has never been a big fund itself, and its asset base fell 22% between mid-2006 and mid-2008. (It uses a June fiscal year.) But the fund’s expense ratio stayed at 0.90%–a very reasonable cost for a fund with only about $100 million in assets–because the advisor waived some fees to keep that ratio from rising. Moreover, the advisor’s chairman told Morningstar last week that the 0.90% cap is likely to stay in place indefinitely.

Of course, you shouldn’t sell a high-quality fund just because its expense ratio rose in a very unusual 2008, especially if the cost is still at a reasonable level. (Many Vanguard index funds have seen their expense ratios rise, but I certainly wouldn’t sell any of them for that reason. Or even complain.) What’s critical is to keep an eye on what your fund is charging you. Voice your displeasure if you don’t like what you see, or take your business elsewhere if that works for your situation. With the economy in recession and personal finances precarious, there’s no reason that mutual fund costs should get a pass.

Gregg Wolper has a position in the following securities mentioned above: SSHFX

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/You-Dont-Have-to-Put-Up-with-ms-15130409.html?.v=1

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